One of my favorite draft season past times is seeing the players fans convince themselves will be all time greats. While Im sure that late round, DII player you love so much looks nice in his highlight tape, that’s probably the only place he’ll ever look nice.
The position with the most forced infatuation is easily QB, people see guys who’s won a lot in college, guys with a cannon arm, or guys with a little bit of athleticism and assume they’ll be the next big thing. “You know if this guy goes to the right system and they let him develop for a couple of years, he could turn out to be something!” Unfortunately though, these QBs, like a photographer on a bad day, don’t have very much to develop.
Last year it was Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley. The year before that it was Logan Thomas, Tom Savage, and Zach Mettenberger. The year before that it was Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib. All late round guys who, with a little bit of time and a little bit coaching, had a chance to be decent starters.
All of these guys are called project QBs for a reason, you have to make something out of them. The only problem with these projects is that they usually fail. Rarely do you ever see a guy taken later than the third develop into anything more than a back up.
In the past ten years, only three starting QBs were taken later than the second, those players were Russell Wilson (3rd round), Kirk Cousins (4th round), and Tyrod Taylor (6th round).
Kirk Cousin and Tyrod Taylor the only example of a project QB recently panning out to be a legitimate starter level QB (NOTE: I don’t include Russell Wilson among these two because he never needed developing). In the past 15 seasons, the only project QBs taken later than the third that have amounted to anything, excluding Cousins and Taylor, are David Garrard, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Orton. That’s five starters developed over the past 15 seasons, not the best ratio. All five of these players are starter caliber, but you have a pretty good idea on limitations of each and you wouldn’t really want to ride into a playoff game with them at the helm.
Speaking of limitations and playoff games, it’s also interesting to note that 11 of the past 15 Super Bowls have included at least one first round quarter back. If you expand that list to go all the back to 1990, then 23 of the past 27 have included at least one first round QB. While it isn’t impossible to find Super Bowl caliber QBs late, your Russell Wilsons, Tom Bradys, Joe Montanas, and Jim Kellys are all few and far between.
I think the thing that kills these QBs most often is a lack of care, that’s not to say the coaches don’t care for their players, but rather the organization gives up on the player the moment something better comes along. Take the QBs of the 2014 draft class for example. Zach Mettenburger had starter upside until Tennessee wound up with the second overall pick and Marcus Mariota, now he’ll be in charge of keeping the bench warm for the foreseeable future. Logan Thomas was a big lump of clay for Bruce Ariens to mold, then Carson Palmer found his way to Arizona and Arizona found Logan Thomas’ way to Miami. Tom Savage may have been done dirtiest of all. Drafted as one of the bigger sleepers in his draft, Savage has been pushed down the Texans depth chart by free agent acquisitions. Tom Savage is now the third string QB looking up at the likes of Brian Hoyer and Brock Oswiler.
Drafting a guy late and giving him time to develop is a nice philosophy, but that time only opens the door for a better QB prospect to come along and wow his team. When you take a developmental QB early, you force your team into developing the player because otherwise would be a waste of an early draft pick
More often than not, you get what you pay for in terms of drafting a QB; that’s why there’s a first round QB playing in the Super Bowl so often. if you invest a fourth or fifth round pick in a QB, you’re probably just drafting a back up.
This article is not meant to denounce the drafting of QBs late, you can find a bad QB in the first just as easily as you find a bad QB late; finding a good QB is hard period. Rather, this article is meant to temper expectations on late round guys, not everyone is going to be the next Tom Brady no matter how much you want him to be. This also ties in with the Eagles recent announcement that they plan on taking a QB somewhere in the draft.
Rumors swirled about the possibility of the Eagles trading up for a top QB, which was met with much chagrin from the Eagles’ fanbase. Rather than go after a top name, many fans have offered the alternative of Dak Prescott or Cradle Jones or any other late QB. While I will admit to being a big Cardale fan, I understand he and a lot of non-first round QBs in this draft come with a pretty high bust possibility. When you consider the fact Donovan McNabb is the only QB this team has taken in the first round since 1980, the team’s historic QB woes make a little bit of sense. Although it may cost a lot, trading up to make sure they lock up one of the top QBs may not be the worst idea because without a second round pick, there isn’t much guarantee the guy they take will be any better than Sam Bradford or their QB of the future.
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