So your Philadelphia Phillies are the lucky recipients of the number one pick in this Thursday’s MLB Draft? Congratulations, that’s like getting the first crack at a fresh box of cereal. Unless there’s a prize inside, you’re probably just getting a bowl of cereal.
Now that’s not to say there’s anything wrong with a bowl of cereal – cereal for dinner RULEZ – and the first bowl is always the best, but that prize would of been so much cooler.
I think the first pick in the MLB draft is a lot like this because unless there’s a prize at the top of the draft, you might just be getting a bowl of cereal. And sometimes cereal is great, but other times what looks good can turn soggy awful fast. You can still get a great player first overall, but teams miss nearly as often as they hit picking first overall.
Having to settle for what’s best available when a draft lacks a true transcendent prospect isn’t exclusive to baseball; in fact it happens in all professional sports. but the difference between baseball and all other professional sports is how often that transcendent talent comes around.
In most sports, I’d say there’s a clear cut number 1 pick nine out of every ten drafts; sometimes there’s some confusion at the top or it’s just a bad draft but for the most part you usually have a good idea of who the draft’s best player is. For the MLB, I’d say it happens one in ten times. Unless you know you’re getting a Bryce Harper or Ken Griffey Jr. type, there’s no guarantee you’re taking the best player in the draft; that’s just what happens in a FOURTY ROUND(!!!) draft.
Even when a team takes the supposed “can’t miss” prospect, there’s still no guarantee you’re getting the draft’s best player. Take the 2009 draft for example. Stephen Strasburg went first overall and was widely considered the best his draft class had to offer, except The draft’s real gem was taken 24 picks later in Mike Trout. Strasburg’s been great for the Nats, but I think they might rather have the best player in baseball.
Another great example would be the 2006 draft. Pitcher Luke Hochevar went first overall to the Royals and was considered arguably the best arm in his class two years running. After him went four more pitchers before Clayton Kershaw, a future hall of Famer, was taken seventh overall. Almost all five of those pitchers have been moved to the bullpen while Kershaw is on course to win his fourth Cy Young.
Hell, just look at what the Phils did the last time they had the first overall pick. Pat Burrell is a Phillies’ great and helped them win a World Series, but he was expected to be so much more as a hitter. He was suppose to be a great all around hitter, but instead he was just power.
Now there’s also the matter of the bigger game to be played with the MLB draft because it’s not as simple as “He’s good, take him”. Outside of ridiculous length, one thing that makes the MLB draft so much different than all others is the signing bonus pool.
The signing bonus pool is every team’s limit on how much money they are allowed to give out in signing bonuses to newly drafted players. Only players selected in the first ten rounds are effected by this pool and the higher a player’s drafted, the more money they’re entitled.
Another thing that makes the MLB draft unique is that players can refuse to sign with the team they’re drafted by and if they still have some eligibility remaining, can simply return to college ball and get drafted next season. This goes hand in hand with the bonus pool because if a player does not like the bonus they’re offered they can simply return to college, declare for the draft the following season, and hope for something better.
JD Drew famously spurned the Phillies for this reason and has been universally labeled a douche in the city of Brotherly Love for the rest of time. He also helped inspire the name of this blog!
This then requires teams to pick responsibly so as to not exceed the bonus pool by drafting too many expensive prospects because if they exceed the pool they then must forfeit future early round draft picks. That’s why teams will purposefully pass on a better prospect early with hopes of getting good value in the later rounds.
So if a draft lacks a transcendent talent at the top, much like this year’s does, the team picking first has a much bigger game they must play carefully picking someone first overall that might set them up for later round success. It is a very dangerous game that can blow up in a team’s face very easily.
The Houston Astros are the perfect cautionary tale when it comes to having the first overall pick. The team held the first overall pick in consecutive drafts (2013,2014) and neither prospect selected is still with the franchise.
The Astros selected Mark Appel first overall in 2013. Many believed Appel to be arguably the best player in his draft with Jon Gray and Kris Bryant as his main competition for the draft’s top spot. The Astros took Appel because he was seen as the safest pitching option and expected to breeze through the minors, but the pick couldn’t of blown up in the Astros’ face any more perfectly. After just two seasons with the Astros, Appel was shipped off to the Phillies in this offseason’s Ken Giles trade as a last minute throw in piece. He carries a career 5.12 ERA and has yet to see the majors, while Gray is already pitching for the Rockies and Kris Bryant is seen as one of the sport’s best young sluggers.
Things went even worse for the Astros the following season when they selected Brady Aiken first overall. Aiken was an electric high school pitcher with as much upside as they come. Aiken and the Astros originally agreed to a $6.5 mil signing bonus, but after a post-draft physical raised red flags about his left elbow the Astros cut their deal to $5 mil. The two sides were never able to come to terms on the new deal by the MLB’s signing deadline and thus the Astros wasted their first overall pick for the second consecutive year. Meanwhile six picks later, the Phillies took the player many thought to be one of the safest pitching options in that draft with Aaron Nola. After two seasons, Nola is already the top pitcher in the Phillies’ rotation while Brady Aiken is a Cleveland Indian.
So the Phillies have a very difficult decision ahead of themselves on Thursday. Will they take the projected safe option in AJ Puk, who many believe to be the draft’s best player much like Appel, or will they take someone like Jason Groome, a risky high school player with the most upside in this draft much like Brady Aiken. Maybe it’ll be the promising bat of Mickey Moniak or maybe it’ll be the safer bat of Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis. It’s seriously anyone’s guess.
Or maybe they’ll just draft someone another team has their eye on and look to make a deal later on down the line for an actual major league player, similar to what the Diamondbacks did this offseason.
The Phillies have had some great success with their recent first round picks, but as far as Im concerned with whoever they take, nothing is guaranteed.
Snowballs & Batteries 